2026 forecast to rank among the hottest years on record

Climate · First reported 6 Nov, 09:55 · Updated 10:46

Image: Wikimedia Commons · NASA Johnson Space Center · Public domain

Copernicus says 2026 is on track to be the second-hottest year recorded, with a 20% chance of matching or exceeding 2024. It also expects global temperatures to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year, as a strong El Niño adds to human-driven warming.

Copernicus projects 2026 will likely be the second-hottest year on record, while estimating a 20% chance it will tie or exceed 2024’s record.
The agency says temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026; the average for 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed that level.
October was the warmest October on record, at 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, and marked the third consecutive month above 1.5°C.
Copernicus attributes added heat to an exceptionally strong El Niño, which is expected to peak later in the year; forecasters say it could contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year on record.
The reports say nations are preparing for the two-week COP31 summit in Turkey, and note the Paris Agreement’s aim to keep warming well below 2°C while pursuing a 1.5°C limit.

Summary written by Lux AI from 5 articles

Key facts

2026 ranking forecast: Likely second-hottest year on record.
Chance of matching or exceeding 2024: 20%.
October global temperature: 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels; warmest October on record.
El Niño outlook: Expected to peak later in 2026.