Early polar-vortex weakening raises questions about UK winter weather

Climate · First reported 6 Nov, 01:22 · Updated 01:37

Image: Wikimedia Commons · NASA Johnson Space Center · Public domain

The polar vortex has weakened unusually early, but its effects on UK weather remain uncertain. Experts cited in the coverage say it could increase the chance of colder conditions, while stressing that snow or a severe cold spell is not assured.

The Met Office says the vortex is weakening at the earliest date in at least 75 years of modern records.
A weakened vortex can disrupt the jet stream and allow Arctic air to move south, but it does not guarantee cold UK weather.
Scientists cited in the coverage say the developing El Niño may have contributed to the early weakening, though the cause is not clear.
The i Paper reports a risk of a UK cold snap toward the end of the following week, while noting it is unlikely to be extreme; The Standard says it is too early to know whether London’s outlook will change.
The i Paper says colder, drier conditions later in winter could reduce water-storage replenishment while parts of the UK remain in drought after a dry summer.

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Key facts

Record timing: The Met Office says the weakening is occurring at the earliest date in at least 75 years of modern records.
Possible short-term effect: A UK cold snap is possible toward the end of the following week, but is unlikely to be extreme, according to the i Paper’s account.
Long-range outlook: The Standard reports forecasts of a wet and windy start to winter, followed by colder periods in early 2027.
Possible contributing factor: Scientists cited by the i Paper say the developing El Niño may have contributed to the early weakening.