Prediction markets face scrutiny over election forecasts

Business · First reported 28 Oct, 23:19 · Updated 07:36

A Semafor report says prediction markets gave inaccurate odds in elections in Brazil and Serbia, and overrated a challenger in Israel, raising questions about their usefulness as hedges. The Atlantic’s supplied snippet asks whether the industry is ready for the midterms.

Kalshi and Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% chance of winning in Brazil, but he lost.
Kalshi gave Serbia’s incumbent 75% odds as late as election day, but he lost; the report questions the value of markets promoted as investment hedges.

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Key facts

Brazil odds: Kalshi and Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro 4-in-5 odds; he lost.
Serbia odds: Kalshi gave the incumbent 75% odds as late as election day; he lost.
Israel: The race was still too close to call, and Polymarket was investigating suspicious bets.